“Post PC” Marketshare

Schmidt predicts Devs will pick Android over iOS in 6 months…
Nope. Not me at least. In reality, Developers will

  1. Follow the Money
  2. Do what’s easy

And right now Android doesn’t have either going for it. Despite a huge install base, the fragmentation of app stores and fragmentation of devices as well as proven customer unwillingness to pay on that platform is not attractive at all. Here are the future markets as I predict them:

Android will continue to “dominate” in terms of raw numbers but all selling iPhone models will continue to be the most popular handsets. Android’s marketshare will increase far beyond iOS though. Windows will account for at most 10%. If iOS and Android are ignored, 3rd place Windows will have 70-90%. In other words, outside of the big three, “the rest” will eventually fade away. I may revise this prediction if WebOS isn’t killed off but I’m confident RIM has lost its chance at redemption.

9″+ Tablets (Arm):
Android Tablets are continuing to go nowhere. People like WebOS at closeout prices more than QNX. People love iOS tablets.
Considering how well WebOS did (even though it was a firesale) I’m first going to give a prediction assuming HP manages to do something with it.

If WebOS tablets continue to exist, they will have a huge lead over Android and Windows 8 in CONSUMER tablets.

In the CONSUMER space, iOS Tablets will never go below 60%, and what’s left will be a tossup between WebOS and Windows 8.

7″ E-Readers
This space is entirely dependent on ecosystems, which gives Amazon an advantage. Android doesn’t need to worry about competition here, but even if these numbers are included against 9″ tablets Android still won’t be number 2.

x86 Tablets
Windows all the way but overall a small number, smaller than E-Readers.

15″ + TouchScreen PCs
Here Windows 8 is uncontested and I expect this market will really take off. Metro really works well at 1080p. In Windows 7 touch was an unnecessary gimmick and didn’t work too well but Windows 8 is really addressing those shortfalls. Based on how little I paid for my Dell touchscreen I wouldn’t be surprised if only business customers could purchase non-touchscreen displays in the near future. Metro sucks without it, and Windows 8 will have metro on your x86 machine whether you like it or not.

In the arm tablet section I mentioned the iOS (and maybe WebOS) would outdo Windows 8 in the consumer space. I mentioned that specifically because I think businesses who haven’t already moved to iOS will see the familiar Windows as the way to go. It may not be a crushing loss to iOS but it might be a close one.