Now that the smartphone dust has settled, it appears we’re doomed to a fragmented duopoly. iOS V.Current will have the largest version slice but iOS Combined will be maybe about half of Android Combined. The others simply aren’t going to gain any ground.
I’m more optimistic in the tablet arena. Android Tablets are doing so poorly against the iPad that Windows 8 ReTweet and openWebOS have a shot at beating it and combined at least exceeding iOS. In both phones and tablets, what would be best for the consumer is 40-30-20-10 split between OS’s. In the Tablet world iOS will stay on top but the bottom three slots aren’t set yet. 25-25-25-25 is simply impossible. Someone has to “win”. Maybe after some Halo Effect from positive impressions with WebOS and Windows tablets (and some well engineered pairing between devices Apple seems to not give a crap about) WebOS and Windows Phone can gain some traction, if any carriers are willing to have them of course.